New Delhi:  Eric Holthaus, who covered Hurrican Sandy for the Wall Street Journal through its weather blog has predicted that Cyclone Phailin may become the strongest cyclone India has ever seen. During Hurricane Sandy, Eric Holthaus was one of the best sources for weather information about New York City.

Holthaus tweeted: “Cyclone Phailin is now the strongest storm ever measured in the Indian Ocean.”   “Latest forecast update from IMD: no change. Still underestimating Phailin’s potential winds and surge”

“If you’re in India, download @weathermob app & share your cyclone Phailin experience with the rest of the world. Become a weather reporter”, he tweeted.

“Cyclone Phailin’s outer core beginning to come ashore in India. Live satellite loop: 1.usa.gov/165KbbS”

“Cyclone Phailin is now as strong as 1999 cyclone. My latest summary of ‘humanitarian disaster in the making’.

“Conditions should begin to deteriorate soon over India’s eastern coastal area. Landfall (worst conditions) in 12-15 hours (~6pm India time)

The cyclone has strengthened at one of the fastest rates ever recorded, going from a tropical storm to a category 4 cyclone in only 24 hours.

On Friday (Oct. 11), it became the equivalent of a category 5 hurricane—the strongest on the American scale—with sustained winds of 160 mph (260 kph). That official wind speed has tied Phailin with the devastating 1999 Orissa Cyclone which killed more than 10,000 people—currently India’s strongest storm ever.

Storm surge is by far Phailin’s biggest threat to lives along India’s coastline. Ocean levels may rise as much as 6 meters (20 feet) near and to the northeast of the storm’s landfall location, pushing an inexorable wall of water inland.

Storm surge of nearly 3 meters may stretch as far northeast as the vulnerable Ganges Delta of Bangladesh—home to tens of millions. The JTWC estimates that waves of up to 17 meters (56 feet) are already buffeting the Bay of Bengal.

The storm may also bring nearly one meter of additional rainfall to inland areas.

Phailin is now forecast to break the Indian Ocean intensity record set by the 1999 Cyclone just prior to its Saturday landfall, according to the US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii:

Even if Phailin doesn’t manage to hold the intensity record, the storm surge will be immense.

that recent research shows that the strength of a storm 18 hours before landfall is the best predictor of its peak storm surge.

A storm surge of 1 to 3 meters could extend for hundreds of kilometers northeast of where the storm makes landfall. In short, Phailin is a humanitarian disaster in the making.

Despite international consensus that Phailin was among the most powerful storms ever to threaten the subcontinent, India’s Meteorology Department (IMD) continued to gauge the storm’s strength conservatively.

In its latest forecast, the IMD predicted sustained winds of 210-220 kph and storm surge of up to 3.5 meters (11 feet) at landfall.

These numbers are about 40 kph weaker than the JTWC’s most recent forecast, and in my opinion, the storm surge could be double what IMD is predicting.

One possible explanation for this discrepancy is a difference in philosophy of interpreting satellite data.

Late Friday, one real-time storm surge gauge on the Indian coastline was already approaching 1 meter of storm surge.